Turkey: Economic growth accelerates in Q2
September 10, 2013
In the second quarter, GDP rose 4.4% over the same quarter last year, marking an acceleration compared to the 2.9% expansion recorded in the first quarter (previously reported: +3.0% year-on-year). The reading overshot the 3.5% rise market analysts had expected and marks the fastest GDP growth since Q4 2011.
The Q2 improvement was driven by improved domestic demand performance, whereas the external sector deteriorated. Private consumption expanded 5.3% over the same period last year (Q1: +3.1% yoy), while government spending increased 7.4% (Q1: +7.6% yoy). Gross fixed investment rose a solid 3.7% in the second quarter (Q1: +2.3% yoy).
Exports of goods and services rose a mild 1.2%, which was well below the 5.6% increase tallied in the previous quarter. Imports grew a robust 11.7% in Q2, overshooting the 7.1% expansion in Q1. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth deteriorated from minus 0.6 percentage points in the first quarter to minus 3.0 percentage points in the second quarter.
A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the acceleration suggested by the annual figures, as GDP expanded 2.1% over the previous quarter in seasonally and calendar-day adjusted terms, up from the 1.5% rise recorded in Q1.
The Turkish government expects the economy to expand 4.0% this year and 5.0% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 3.6% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel expects GDP to expand 4.2%.