Turkey Current Account

Turkey

Turkey: Current account in September posts largest surplus in nearly six years

November 11, 2015

The current account balance recorded a USD 95 million surplus in September (August: USD 27 million surplus). The print contrasted both the USD 2.4 billion shortfall recorded in the same month last year and the USD 80 billion deficit that market analysts had expected. Moreover, September’s figure marked the largest surplus since October 2009 as low oil prices, a weak lira and subdued import demand all eased pressures on the country’s current account deficit. As a result, the 12-month trailing current account deficit also narrowed, from USD 43.0 billion in August to USD 40.6 billion in September (roughly equivalent to 5.0% of GDP).

In September, exports fell 15.5% in USD terms over the same month last year, which was a sharper decline than the 6.0% drop tallied in August. Imports fell a significant 24.4%, which followed August’s 17.3% annual contraction and marked the sharpest decline since September 2009. As a result, the trade deficit came in at USD 2.5 billion in September, which marked a smaller shortfall over the USD 5.1 billion deficit recorded in the same month last year.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the current account deficit to reach 5.2% of GDP this year. For 2016, the panel sees the current account deficit worsening to 5.5% of GDP.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Turkey Current Account Chart


Turkey Current Account September 2015

Note: Monthly and 12-month sum of current account balance in USD billion.
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).


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