Turkey: Consumer sentiment hits 16-month high in July
July 29, 2013
The consumer confidence index published by the Statistical Institute in cooperation with the Central Bank rose from 76.2 points in June to 78.5 points in July, which marks the highest level observed since March 2012. Nevertheless, consumer confidence remains firmly entrenched below the 100-point threshold that separates optimistic from pessimistic territory.
According to the Statistical Institute, the improvement seen in consumer confidence was broad-based; all four of the index's sub-components gained ground over the previous month. Households' expectation of the economic situation in the next 12 months recorded the largest increase, followed by a significant expansion in consumers' probability of saving in the next 12 months. Job prospects and consumers' assessment regarding their financial situation in the next 12 months experienced milder increases.
Although overall consumer confidence did improve, levels remain low overall, which does not bode well for private consumption going forward. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists see private consumption expanding 3.1% this year, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel expects private consumption to grow 4.3%.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist