Turkey Business Confidence


Turkey: Business confidence slides in December

December 28, 2015

Positive spillovers from November’s conclusive parliamentary elections are starting to fade and the Real Sector Confidence Index published by the Central Bank moderated in December. The index fell from November’s 105.2 to 102.2 in December. Nevertheless, business confidence remains above the 100-point threshold and indicates an optimistic outlook for business conditions.

December’s result showed that businesses were more pessimistic regarding the general business situation in Turkey as well as the expected volume of output for the next three months, which hit a two-year low. Moreover, export orders for the coming three months and job prospects declined to a one-year low in December. In contrast, stocks of finished goods climbed to a 13-month high, while the total amount of orders over the past three months and fixed investment expectations both recorded mild gains compared to the previous month.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment experiencing a 2.6% expansion in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points compared to last month’s estimate. In 2016, panelists expect investment growth to accelerate 2.5%, which is also up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Turkey Business Confidence Chart

Turkey Business Confidence December 2015

Note: Real Sector Confidence Index. Values above 100 indicate an optimistic outlook while values below 100 indicate a pessimistic outlook.
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).

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