Turkey Business Confidence November 2017

Turkey

Turkey: Business confidence logs back-to-back decrease in November

November 24, 2017

The Real Sector Confidence Index published by the Central Bank fell from 109.5 in October to 106.3 in November, marking the lowest reading in nine months as well as the second consecutive month of worsening sentiment. Despite the decline, the index remains above the 100-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism among firms, where it has been since February.

November’s dip reflected companies’ less optimistic assessments on both future and present economic conditions. Their prospects on output, demand and employment growth all deteriorated from the previous month, while current order books only saw an improvement among export-oriented firms.

Firms’ view on the economy’s performance over the last three months was also more downbeat than reported one month ago, with only output for the three-month period receiving an overall positive assessment by companies. Regarding prices, firms continued to digest multi-year high inflation and unanchored price expectations amid a plunging lira. They expected input and output inflation to accelerate over the next three months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment expanding 3.6% in 2018, which is up 0.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2019, panelists also expect fixed investment to grow 3.6%.


Author:, Economist

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Turkey Business Confidence November 2017

Note: Real Sector Confidence Index. Values above 100 indicate an optimistic outlook while values below 100 indicate a pessimistic outlook.
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).


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