Thailand GDP

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Thailand: Economy accelerates slightly in Q3 on stronger domestic demand

November 17, 2014

In Q3, GDP expanded 0.6% over the same period last year. The figure followed the 0.4% expansion tallied in Q2 and undershot the 1.0% expansion the market had expected. Q3’s expansion reflected an improvement in domestic demand, while the external sector performed worse compared to the previous quarter.

Private consumption rose 2.2% over the same period last year, which was an improvement over the 0.2% increase observed in the second quarter. However, growth in government consumption decelerated from 2.1% in Q2 to 0.4% in Q3, thus marking the slowest increase since Q1 2012. Fixed investment rebounded from a 6.9% contraction in Q2 to a 2.9% expansion in Q3.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services dropped 4.0% in Q3 (Q2: -0.6% year-on-year). Meanwhile, imports fell 1.1%, which represented a much softer contraction than the 9.0% decrease observed in the previous quarter. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth fell from 5.2 percentage points in the second quarter to minus 2.4 percentage points in the third quarter, thus marking the lowest level since Q2 2012.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP expanded 1.1% in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q3, which matched Q2’s result.

The government expects GDP to grow between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014, which is down from the previously forecasted range of 1.5%-2.0%. The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 1.5% in 2014 and 4.8% in 2015. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 1.3% in 2014, which is down 0.2 percentage points over last month’s estimate. The panel projects that the economy will pick up and sees GDP growing 4.2% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Thailand GDP Q3 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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