Thailand: Economic growth slower in Q3
November 19, 2012
In the third quarter, GDP expanded 3.0% over the same period last year, which was virtually in line with market expectations of 3.1% growth but marked a slowdown compared to the revised 4.4% increase tallied in the second quarter (previously reported: +4.2% year-on-year). Total consumption expanded a strong 6.5% annually in Q3 (Q2: +5.6% yoy), buttressed by healthy growth in both private and government consumption, which increased 6.0% and 9.0% respectively. In addition, gross fixed investment accelerated from a 10.2% increase in the second quarter to a 15.5% expansion in the June-September period. That said, a massive destocking process caused total investment to fall, which, in turn, dragged domestic demand down in the third quarter. On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services dropped into negative territory and contracted 2.8% in Q3, contrasting the revised 1.1% increase recorded in Q2 (previously reported: +0.9% year-on-year). Meanwhile, imports contracted 1.8% in Q3 contrasting the 8.6% expansion observed in Q2 and marking, in fact, the slowest growth rate recorded since Q4 2009. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall economic growth improved significantly from minus 4.3 percentage points in the second quarter to minus 1.1 percentage points in Q3. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew 1.2% in seasonally adjusted terms in the third quarter, which was below the revised 2.8% expansion observed in the previous period (previously reported: +3.3% year-on-year).
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist