Thailand GDP

Thailand

Thailand: Economic growth gains momentum in third quarter but disappoints expectations

November 21, 2011

In the third quarter, GDP expanded 3.5% over the same period last year, which was above the revised 2.7% expansion recorded in the second quarter (previously reported: +2.6% year-on-year). The reading marked the fastest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2010, but undershot market expectations by almost one full percentage point, which had GDP accelerating to 4.4%. The third quarter print reflected strong growth in the external sector, while domestic demand showed weaker growth compared to the previous quarter. Total consumption decelerated, on the back of slower growth in private consumption (Q2: +2.7% yoy; Q3:+2.4% yoy), while growth in government consumption remained relatively stable (Q2: +1.0% yoy; Q3: +1.1% yoy). Moreover, gross fixed investment decelerated from a 4.1% increase in the second quarter to a 3.3% expansion in the third quarter. On the other hand, the external sector improved compared to the previous quarter, as exports picked up faster than imports. Exports of goods and services grew 17.4%, which was faster than the 12.0% increase observed in the second quarter, while imports expanded 19.3% in Q3, also faster than the 15.1% increase recorded in the second quarter. As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth improved from 0.3 percentage points in the second quarter to 1.4 percentage points in the third. At the sector level, the third quarter expansion reflected strong growth in the industrial sector, which bounced back from a 0.4% contraction in the second quarter to a 2.8% expansion. In contrast, growth in services slowed (Q2: +5.4% yoy; Q3: +4.8% yoy), while agriculture deteriorated and contracted 0.9% (Q2: +6.7% yoy). Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted figures confirm the acceleration suggested by the annual reading, as the economy expanded 0.53% in the third quarter, well above the 0.05% increase observed in the previous period. Following the worst flooding in over 50 years, the economy is likely to shrink 3.7% in the final quarter of this year, according to official estimates. Accordingly, the government significantly cut its growth forecast for this year and now expects the economy to grow only 1.5%, well below its previous 4.0% estimate. For 2012, the government projects economic growth to rise to between 4.5% and 5.5%. In the same vein, the Bank of Thailand cut its growth forecast for this year and now expects the economy to expand 2.6%, down from its previous 4.1% estimate. For 2012, the Bank expects the economy to grow 4.1% (previous estimate +4.2%) based on solid fundamentals and on the back of reconstruction efforts.


Author:, Senior Economist

Sample Report

Looking for forecasts related to GDP in Thailand? Download a sample report now.

Download




Thailand Economic News

  • Thailand: Inflation inches down in May

    June 4, 2019

    Consumer prices increased 0.48% month-on-month in May, up from the prior month’s 0.44% rise, reflective on noticeable price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages, while transportation and communication costs also rose albeit at a softer pace than in the prior month.

    Read more

  • Thailand: Manufacturing output rebounds in April

    May 28, 2019

    Manufacturing production rose 2.0% year-on-year in April, swinging from a revised 2.7% contraction in March (previously reported: -2.5% year-on-year).

    Read more

  • Thailand: Exports fall again in April

    May 23, 2019

    Thailand recorded a trade deficit of USD 1.5 billion in April, swinging from a USD 2.0 billion surplus in March; the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance narrowed from a USD 3.0 billion surplus in March to a USD 2.6 billion surplus.

    Read more

  • Thailand: Economic growth moderates to near five-year low in Q1

    May 21, 2019

    Economic growth decelerated to 2.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, down from the 3.6% annual expansion logged in Q4 last year and the lowest reading in nearly half a decade.

    Read more

  • Thailand: Inflation stable in April at lower end of Central Bank’s target range

    May 16, 2019

    Consumer prices rose 0.44% in April over the previous month (March: 0.41% month-on-month) due to stronger price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages, and apparel and footwear. Inflation was stable at March’s 1.2% in April, remaining within the Central Bank’s 1.0%–4.0% target range for the second time after several months of undershooting.

    Read more

More news

Search form