Switzerland Economic Sentiment

Switzerland

Switzerland: Leading economic indicator moderates in November

November 28, 2014

Switzerland’s KOF economic barometer—a composite leading indicator for the Swiss economy in the next six months—inched down from a revised 99.5 points in October (previously reported: 99.8 points) to 98.7 points in November. The result was also below the 99.5 points the markets had expected. According to the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, “whereas the barometer had moved very closely around the long-term average in the last three months, the gap has widened now somewhat.” Nevertheless, the Institute stated that despite the slight drop in November, “the indicator is retaining close contact to its average” and concluded that, “[the] economic development in Switzerland is likely to be marginally bumpier in winter.”

The retreat in November showed that the economic climate deteriorated in the banking and industrial sectors. In addition, the sub-indicator for consumption fell over the previous month, suggesting that consumers are less optimistic regarding their current economic situation. Conversely, an improvement was seen in the economic prospects in the construction sector.

The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) expects GDP to expand 1.8% in 2014, before increasing 2.4% in 2015. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank expects economic growth of around 1.5% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.5% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2015, the panel expects economic growth to accelerate to 1.8%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Switzerland Economic Sentiment November 2014

Note: KOF Economic Barometer Indicator.
Source: KOF Swiss Economic Institute.


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