Sweden GDP

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Sweden: GDP contracts in Q1 for first time since Q4 2012

May 30, 2014

In the first quarter, the economy contracted 0.1% over the previous quarter in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, according to data released on 30 May. The result marked the lowest result and first contraction since Q4 2012. The figure contrasted the 1.6% expansion registered in Q4 and undershot the flat growth the market had expected. On an annual basis, the economy grew 1.8%, marking a slowdown over the 3.0% expansion in Q4.

Q1’s negative result came on the back of a moderation across most components of the domestic economy and a deterioration of the external sector. Private consumption rose only 0.6% (Q4: +0.9% quarter-on-quarter), while government spending decreased 0.1% (Q4: +0.9% qoq). Fixed investment was the only bright spot, accelerating from the 1.6% rise recorded in Q4 to a 2.1% increase in Q1.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services slowed from 1.5% growth in Q4 to a 0.6% increase in Q1. Imports increased 2.0% in the first quarter (Q4: +1.3% qoq). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth swung from plus 0.2 percentage points in Q4 to minus 0.5 percentage points in Q1.

The Central Bank expects economic growth to reach 2.7% in 2014 and 3.2% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 2.7% in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2015, the panel projects that the economy will expand 2.8%.


Author:, Economist

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Sweden GDP Q1 2014

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Sweden (SCB) and FocusEconomics Forecast.


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