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Spain: New Q2 GDP data confirm strongest expansion since 2007

August 28, 2014

GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% in Q2 over the previous quarter, according to more complete data released by the National Statistics Office (INE) on 28 August. The print matched the result reported in the 30 July advance estimate and exceeded the 0.4% increase tallied in Q1. The Q2 increase marked the largest quarterly gain since Q4 2007. On an annual basis, GDP rose 1.2% over the same quarter last year, which followed the 0.5% increase recorded in Q1 and represented the highest growth rate since Q2 2008.

The expansion mainly reflected a healthy performance of domestic demand and a positive contribution from the external sector. Private consumption growth accelerated slightly to 0.7% in Q2 (Q1: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter), whereas government spending slowed to a 0.1% increase (Q1: +4.4% qoq). Gross fixed investment rebounded to a 0.5% expansion in Q2, contrasting the 0.7% drop tallied in Q1.

Exports of goods and services expanded 1.3% in Q2 (Q1: -1.0% qoq), while imports rose 1.5% (Q1: +0.9% qoq). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth swung from minus 2.2 percentage points in Q1 to plus 0.3 percentage points in Q2.

The Central Bank expects the economy to grow 1.3% in 2014 and sees it accelerating to a 2.0% expansion in 2015. Moreover, the government announced that the Spanish economy would grow 1.2% this year before accelerating to 1.8% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.1% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2015, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.6%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Spain GDP Q2 2014 2

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %
Source: Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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