Spain: New data show that GDP expanded less than projected Q4
February 27, 2014
GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% over the previous quarter in Q4, according to more complete data released by the National Statistics Office (INE) on 27 February. The print, which was below the 0.3% increase reported in the 30 January advance estimate, followed the 0.1% increase recorded in Q3. The Q4 increase marked the second consecutive expansion and represented the largest rise since Q1 2011. On an annual basis, GDP fell 0.2% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was an improvement over the 1.1% decline recorded in Q3. In the full year 2013, GDP contracted 1.2%, which was above the 1.6% drop tallied in 2012.
The expansion mainly reflected more resilient external demand. Private consumption expanded 0.5% over the previous quarter in Q4 (Q3: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter). Conversely, government spending declined 3.9% (Q3: +0.6% qoq), which marked the sharpest drop on record. Gross fixed investment increased 0.7% in Q4, matching the result tallied in Q3.
Exports of goods and services increased 0.8% (Q3: +0.6% qoq), while imports contracted 0.6% (Q3: +2.1% qoq). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth swung from minus 1.1 percentage points in Q3 to plus 1.5 percentage points in Q4.
The government expects the economy to grow 0.7% in 2014 before accelerating to a 1.2% increase in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists' forecast is roughly in line with the government's estimate. They expect GDP to expand 0.8% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. In 2015, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.3%.