Spain: New data confirm that Spain has exited recession
November 28, 2013
GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% over the previous quarter in Q3, according to more complete data released by the National Statistics Office (INE) on 28 November. The print, which matched the advance estimate published on 30 October, contrasted the 0.1% decline recorded in Q2. The Q3 increase marks the first expansion in GDP output since Q1 2011. On an annual basis, GDP fell 1.1% over the same quarter last year, which was an improvement over the 1.6% decline recorded in Q2.
The expansion mainly reflected more resilient domestic demand. Private consumption expanded at the fastest pace since Q4 2010, increasing 0.5% over the previous quarter (Q2: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter), while government spending rose 0.1% (Q2: -0.9% qoq). Gross fixed investment rebounded in Q3, expanding 0.2% over the previous quarter (Q2: -2.0% qoq).
Exports of goods and services increased 2.2% (Q2: +6.4% qoq), while imports expanded 2.8% (Q2: +5.2% qoq). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth declined from 3.0 percentage points in Q2 to 0.2 percentage points in Q3.
The government expects the economy to contract 1.3% this year and to grow 0.7% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to contract 1.3% in 2013, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. In 2014, panelists expect the economy to expand 0.6%, which is unchanged over the previous month's estimate.