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Spain: More detailed data confirms largest expansion in eight years in Q1

May 28, 2015

GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.9% in Q1 over the previous quarter, according to more complete data released by the National Statistics Office (INE) on 28 May. The print matched the result reported in the 30 April advance estimate and marked the largest expansion since Q1 2007. With the increase observed in Q1, the economy has now expanded for seven consecutive quarters.

Q1’s improvement reflected an increase in domestic demand, driven by government consumption. Government consumption rebounded from a 1.0% contraction in Q4 2014 to a 1.6% expansion in Q1. However, private consumption decelerated from a 0.9% rise in Q4 to 0.7% growth in Q1. In addition, growth in gross fixed investment slowed slightly to 1.3% (Q4 2014: +1.4% quarter-on-quarter).

Exports of goods and services accelerated rising from zero growth in Q4 to a 1.0% expansion in Q1. Imports improved as well, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction in Q4 to a 0.8% increase. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth fell from plus 0.6 percentage points in Q4 to plus 0.4 percentage points in Q1.

On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.7%, which was above the preliminary estimate of a 2.6% increase and marked the strongest growth since Q2 2008 (Q4 2014: +2.0% year-on-year).

The Central Bank expects the economy to grow 2.8% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 2.6% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2016, panelists expect the economy to increase 2.4%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Spain GDP Chart


Spain GDP Q1 2015 0

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %
Source: Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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