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Spain: More detailed data confirms largest expansion in 7 years in Q4 2014

February 26, 2015

GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.7% in Q4 over the previous quarter, according to more complete data released by the National Statistics Office (INE) on 26 February. The print matched the result reported in the 30 January advance estimate and marked the largest expansion since Q4 2007. With the increase observed in Q4, the economy has now expanded for six consecutive quarters. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.0%, which followed the 1.6% increase recorded in Q3 and marked the strongest growth since Q2 2008.

The expansion mainly reflected stronger dynamics in the external sector. Private consumption growth accelerated slightly to 0.9% in Q4 (Q3: +0.8% quarter-on-quarter), whereas government spending fell to a 1.0% contraction (Q3: -0.1% qoq). Growth in gross fixed investment accelerated to a 1.4% expansion in Q4 (Q3: +1.1% qoq).

Exports of goods and services recorded zero growth in Q4 (Q3: +3.9% qoq), while imports fell 0.6% (Q3: +5.0% qoq). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth rose from minus 0.3 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.5 percentage points in Q4.

For the full year 2014, the economy expanded 1.4%, which contrasted 2013’s 1.2% contraction. The result marked the first year of growth since 2008.

Both the Central Bank and the government expect the economy to grow 2.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.8% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2016, panelists expect the economy to increase 2.0%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Spain GDP Q4 2014

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %
Source: Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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