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Spain: Growth stabilizes in Q3

November 27, 2014

GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% in Q3 over the previous quarter, according to more complete data released by the National Statistics Office (INE) on 27 November. The print matched the result reported in the 30 October advance estimate and was in line with the expansion tallied in Q2. With the increase observed in Q3, the economy has now expanded for five consecutive quarters. On an annual basis, GDP rose 1.6%, which followed the 1.3% increase recorded in Q2 and marked the strongest growth since Q2 2008.

The expansion mainly reflected that slightly weaker dynamics in domestic demand were offset by a less negative contribution from the external sector. Private consumption growth decelerated slightly to 0.8% in Q3 (Q2: +0.9% quarter-on-quarter), whereas government spending rebounded to a 0.1% increase (Q2: -0.1% qoq). Growth in gross fixed investment slowed to a 1.0% expansion in Q3 (Q2: +1.7% qoq).

Exports of goods and services expanded 3.5% in Q3 (Q2: +1.3% qoq), while imports rose 4.7% (Q2: +2.6% qoq). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth rose from minus 1.1 percentage points in Q2 to minus 0.5 percentage points in Q3.

The statistical office released Q3 data calculated with the new standard European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA2010). In accordance with European legislation, an adaptation of a new statistical standard was performed, for which data on GDP were revised in the entire time series from 1995.

Both the Central Bank and the government expect the economy to grow 1.3% in 2014 before accelerating to 2.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.2% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2015, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.8%, which is also unchanged over the previous month’s estimate.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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Spain GDP Q3 2014 0

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %
Source: Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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