Slovenia: GDP records softest contraction since Q1 2012
November 29, 2013
GDP contracted 0.6% over the same quarter last year in Q3, which marks an improvement over the 1.5% drop recorded in Q2 (previously reported: -1.7% year on year). The decline in Q3 is the softest that has been recorded since Q1 2012.
The softer decrease in Q3 reflects an improvement in domestic demand (Q2: -3.5% yoy; Q3: -2.8% yoy) driven by a milder contraction in gross fixed investment (Q2: -8.0% yoy; Q3: -1.3% yoy). On the other hand, private consumption contracted 3.0% in Q3, which exceeded the 2.4% fall tallied in Q2. Government spending followed suit and declined 3.4% in Q3 (Q2: -2.8% yoy).
Exports of goods and services rose 4.9% in Q3, which represents an improvement over the 2.2% increase recorded in Q2. Imports expanded 2.6%, after contracting 0.3% in Q2. As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth was unchanged at the 1.9 percentage points observed in Q2.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally and working-day adjusted basis, GDP recorded zero growth in Q3, which was up from the 0.1% decline recorded in Q2.
The Central Bank expects the economy to contract 2.6% in 2013 and 0.7% in 2014. Growth is only expected to return in 2015, when an expansion of 1.4% is forecasted. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to decline 2.3% in 2013, which is unchanged over the previous month's projection. For 2014, the panel expects the economy to show a 0.6% decline, which is also unchanged from last month's estimate.