Slovenia: GDP rebounds in Q4 on strong domestic demand
March 3, 2014
GDP expanded 2.1% over the same quarter of the previous year in Q4, which marked a sizeable improvement over the 0.5% drop recorded in Q3 (previously reported: -0.6% year-on-year). Q4's figure represented the largest increase recorded since Q1 2011. In the full year 2013, GDP contracted 1.1%, which was an improvement over the 2.5% decline tallied in 2012.
The expansion in Q4 reflected a notable improvement in domestic demand (Q3: -1.8% yoy; Q4: +3.0% yoy). Private consumption recorded zero growth in Q4, which was above the 2.8% drop recorded in Q3. Government spending contracted 1.9% in annual terms, which, nevertheless, marked an improvement over the 2.4% decline tallied in Q3. Gross fixed investment rebounded from a 1.1% decline in Q3 to a 5.9% increase in Q4, which represented the largest expansion since Q3 2008. In addition, GDP benefited from a strong stocking process, which drove an astounding 22.6% growth in total investment in Q4 (Q3: +2.1% yoy).
Exports of goods and services rose 3.7% in Q4, which represents a slight deceleration over the 4.0% increase recorded in Q3. Imports expanded 4.9% in Q4, following the 2.8% increase tallied in Q3. As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth deteriorated from plus 1.3 percentage points in Q3 to minus 0.6 percentage points in Q4.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally- and working-day adjusted basis, GDP recorded a 1.2% expansion in Q4, which was up from the 0.4% increase recorded in Q3.
The Central Bank expects the economy to contract 0.7% in 2014. Growth is expected to return in 2015, when an expansion of 1.4% is forecast. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to contract 0.6% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. In 2015, the panel sees GDP rebounding to 1.0% growth.