Serbia GDP Q2 2017

Serbia

Serbia: GDP growth limps along in Q2

August 31, 2017

According to the second estimate released on 31 August by the Statistical Institute, the estimate for annual GDP growth in Q2 was unchanged at 1.3%. However, the print for Q1 has been revised downward from 1.2% to 1.0% year-on-year.

The meager growth posted in Q2 was partly due to more robust government expenditure (Q2: +1.7% year-on-year; Q1: +0.5% yoy) as well as a small pick-up in gross investment (Q2: +2.0% yoy; Q1: +1.9% yoy). However, private consumption eased from Q1 to Q2 in spite of rising wages and a stronger labor market (Q2: +1.6% yoy; Q1: +2.0% yoy).

On the external sector side, exports accelerated significantly in the second quarter thanks to a strong performance by the transport sector (Q2: +11.5% yoy; Q1: +9.7% yoy). Imports, on the other hand, decelerated to 10.3% in annual terms (Q1: +11.7% yoy). As such, the net contribution to growth improved from minus 2.3 percentage points in Q1 to minus 0.2 percentage points in Q2.

The National Bank of Serbia expects the economy to grow 3.0% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists’ 2017 forecast is lower at 2.7% growth, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2018, the panel sees GDP increasing 3.1%.


Author:, Economist

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Serbia GDP Q2 2017

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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