Serbia GDP


Serbia: Economy accelerates in Q3

November 30, 2015

In Q3, the economy expanded 2.2% over the same quarter last year, according to data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) on 30 November. The print was above the 2.0% increase initially reported and came above the 0.9% increase seen in the second quarter.

Private consumption in Q3 contracted 0.6% in annual terms, which was an improvement over the 1.3% drop seen in the previous quarter. Moreover, government consumption swung from a 2.8% contraction in Q2 to a 0.8% expansion in Q3, thus marking the best figure in three quarters. Growth in fixed investment accelerated from 8.7% in Q2 to 10.1% in Q3.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services accelerated from a 8.4% increase in Q2 to a 8.8% rise in Q3. Moreover, imports improved and grew 5.4% in Q3, which was up from the 2.0% increase seen in Q2. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector deteriorated from 2.6 percentage points in Q2 to 0.8 percentage points in Q3.

Compared to the previous period, GDP dropped a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% in Q3, which contrasted the 2.0% increase recorded in Q2.

The National Bank of Serbia expects the economy to expand 0.8% this year. For 2016, the Bank sees economic growth picking up to 1.8%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to record 0.3% growth in 2015, which is unchanged over the previous month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees GDP increasing 1.6%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Serbia GDP Chart

Serbia GDP Q315

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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