Saudi Arabia GDP

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia: GDP slows to over one-year low in Q4

January 21, 2015

GDP expanded 2.0% in Q4 over the same quarter of the previous year. The print represented a slowdown over the 2.4% increase tallied in Q3 and marked the weakest growth since Q2 2013. The deceleration observed in Q4 mainly reflected a moderation in the non-oil sector (Q3: +6.4% year-on-year; Q4: +3.7% yoy), while oil-related industries recorded flat growth (Q3: -2.3% yoy).

Growth in the agriculture sector slowed to a 1.4% increase in Q4 (Q3: +2.6% yoy), while dynamics in the manufacturing sector moderated to a 7.8% expansion (Q3: +8.6% yoy). Activity in mining and quarrying, which include the all-important crude and oil sectors, dropped 0.6% in Q4, marked, nonetheless, an improvement over the 3.3% decline tallied in Q3. In the services sector, growth in both financial services and domestic trade slowed in Q4. Conversely, the pace of expansion in transportation accelerated in Q4.

In the full year 2014, GDP expanded 3.6%, which marked an acceleration over the 2.7% increase tallied in 2013. Growth was mainly underpinned by a rebound in the oil industries, while activity in the non-hydrocarbon sector slowed.

The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) expects the economy to increase 3.9% in 2015. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to grow 3.3% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to grow 3.6%.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Saudi Arabia GDP Chart

SaudiArabia GDP Q414

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Department of Statistics & Information (CDSI) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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