Saudi Arabia Economic Forecast

Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

A second estimate confirmed that the economy expanded at the quickest pace in nearly a decade in Q3, after growing for the first time since Q3 2019 in the second quarter. The oil economy grew robustly following nine consecutive contractions, driving Q3’s upturn. Meanwhile, growth in the non-oil private sector moderated, while government sector output growth gained momentum in the quarter. Turning to Q4, economic activity likely lost some steam, but GDP growth should have remained healthy due to stronger oil production in October–November, in line with the ongoing easing of OPEC+ cuts. On the fiscal front, in mid-December authorities released details for the 2022 budget, which sees expenditure falling slightly, and revenues rising notably. Consequently, the fiscal balance is seen recording a surplus in 2022 following 2021’s expected deficit.

Saudi Arabia Economic Growth

After a strong rebound in 2021, supported by healthier domestic demand, economic growth should accelerate this year as oil production rises. Moreover, a tighter labor market and pent-up demand will likely keep household spending growing briskly. That said, uncertainty surrounding the ongoing health crisis and volatile oil prices pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 5.6% in 2022, which is up 0.4 percentage points from the last month’s forecast. In 2023, the panel sees economic growth at 3.3%.

Saudi Arabia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)31.131.832.633.434.1
GDP per capita (USD)21,06320,28421,11323,53623,265
GDP (USD bn)654645689786793
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.11.7-0.72.40.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.7-14.00.7-2.14.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.02.3-2.42.7-2.6
Unemployment Rate5.75.65.96.05.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-15.8-12.9-9.2-5.9-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)5.813.117.219.022.8
Money (annual variation in %)2.50.80.32.77.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.21.0-1.11.9-0.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.22.1-0.82.5-2.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.002.002.003.002.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.753.753.753.753.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.753.753.753.753.75
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.7-3.71.59.06.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-56.7-23.810.570.649.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)44.355.898.5169129
Exports (USD billion)204184222294262
Imports (USD billion)159128123126132
Exports (annual variation in %)-40.6-9.820.932.7-11.2
Imports (annual variation in %)0.5-19.8-3.51.85.3
International Reserves (USD)616536496496499
External Debt (% of GDP)13.824.627.728.1-  

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Saudi Arabia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.490.0 %Jun 23
Exchange Rate3.750.0 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.21.00 %Jan 07

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