Saudi Arabia Economic Forecast

Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

A detailed GDP release confirmed that the economy expanded in Q2. The non-oil sector led the way, powered by stronger private sector growth and a rebound in government spending. Meanwhile, the oil sector contracted at a noticeably softer rate in Q2, in line with OPEC+’s decision to gradually ease output cuts since May. Turning to Q3, GDP growth will have likely gained momentum amid a continued increase in oil production. In August, average daily crude oil output hit the highest level since April 2020, after having jumped significantly in July, and it is expected to have increased further in September as OPEC+ continues to reduce its production curtailments, boding well for the energy sector. That said, although the private sector PMI remained firmly in expansionary territory in July–August, the non-oil sector will have likely lost some steam in Q3 due to a less favorable base effect.

Saudi Arabia Economic Growth

GDP is set to grow robustly in 2021 due to stronger domestic and external demand. In 2022, growth should accelerate further as oil production rises. Moreover, falling unemployment and pent-up demand will likely keep household spending growing briskly. That said, uncertainty surrounding the health situation poses a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.5% in 2021. In 2022, the panel sees economic growth at 4.8%, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Saudi Arabia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)31.131.832.633.434.1
GDP per capita (USD)21,06320,28421,11323,53623,265
GDP (USD bn)654645689786793
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.11.7-0.72.40.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.7-14.00.7-2.14.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.02.3-2.42.7-2.6
Unemployment Rate5.75.65.96.05.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-15.8-12.9-9.2-5.9-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)5.813.117.219.022.8
Money (annual variation in %)2.50.80.32.77.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.21.0-1.11.9-0.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.22.1-0.82.5-2.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.002.002.003.002.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.753.753.753.753.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.753.753.753.753.75
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.7-3.71.59.06.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-56.7-23.810.570.649.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)44.355.898.5169129
Exports (USD billion)204184222294262
Imports (USD billion)159128123126132
Exports (annual variation in %)-40.6-9.820.932.7-11.2
Imports (annual variation in %)0.5-19.8-3.51.85.3
International Reserves (USD)616536496496499
External Debt (% of GDP)13.824.627.728.1-  

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Saudi Arabia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.490.0 %Jun 23
Exchange Rate3.750.0 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.21.00 %Jan 07

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