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Russia: Expansion in exports moderates in June

July 29, 2014

In June, exports expanded 2.5% over the same month last year. June’s expansion marked a deceleration over the revised the 8.0% rise tallied in May (previously reported: +9.0% year-on-year), which had marked the strongest expansion since March 2012.

Imports fell 5.9% in June, which was a significantly larger contraction than the 1.4% drop recorded in May. The trade surplus reached USD 16.3 billion in June (June 2013: USD 13.6 billion surplus). The 12-month sum of the trade surplus widened in June from May’s USD 193 billion to USD 196 billion.

The price for Ural oil, Russia’s key export commodity, had picked up slightly in the past two months as a consequence of the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. However, on 31 July, the Ural oil barrel traded at USD 106.22, which was 2.9% lower than the same day of the previous month and 2.1% lower than in the same day last year. July’s figure represents a 2.3% drop since the beginning of the year.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that exports will drop 0.2% in 2014 and accelerate to a 1.9% expansion in 2015.


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Russia Trade Chart


Russia Trade12m June 2014

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and Ministry of Economic Development.


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