Russia: Exports mark first increase after seven consecutive drops
July 25, 2013
In June, exports expanded 1.8% over the same month last year. The reading contrasted the revised 8.9% drop recorded in May (previously reported: -5.3%) and represents the first increase after declining for seven consecutive months. The outturn benefitted from a low base of comparison, as exports contracted 6.4% on an annual basis in June last year.
In the same month, imports rose 3.5%, which contrasted the 6.2% drop recorded in May. As a result, the trade surplus shrank to USD 13.7 billion in June (June 2012: USD 13.9 billion surplus). The 12-month sum of the trade balance remained unchanged at USD 176 billion.
Meanwhile, the price for Ural oil, Russia's key export commodity, picked up in recent weeks. On 25 July, Ural oil traded at USD 108.88 per barrel, which was 7.5% above the price reached on the same day of the previous month and 6.4% higher on a year-on-year basis.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect exports will grow a paltry 0.5% this year before accelerating to a 4.3% expansion in 2014.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions