Russia: Exports contract again in November
December 26, 2013
In November 2013, exports contracted 5.0% over the same month of the previous year. The drop was smaller than the 5.6% fall recorded in October and represents the second consecutive negative reading following four consecutive periods of expansion.
Imports fell 4.1% in November, which was above the 4.3% drop recorded in October. As a result, the trade surplus narrowed to USD 13.6 billion in November (November 2012: USD 14.7 billion surplus). The 12-month sum of the trade balance narrowed from the previous month's USD 178 billion to USD 177 billion in November.
The price for Ural oil, Russia's key export commodity, moderated over the course of the last few weeks. On 8 January, Ural oil traded at USD 106.56 per barrel, which was 4.9% below the price recorded on the same day of the previous month and was down 4.9% on an annual basis. Lower oil prices do not bode well for Russian export revenues in the coming months.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that exports will grow paltry 2.7% in 2014 and then accelerate to a 3.1% expansion in 2015.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions