Russia Inflation September 2016

Russia

Russia: Inflation falls to over-two-year low in September

October 4, 2016

In September, consumer prices increased 0.2% over the previous month, which was up from the flat reading registered in August. According to the Statistical Institute, the increase reflected higher prices for food as well as for nod-food products, particularly for tobacco and clothing.

Inflation fell from 6.9% in August to 6.4% in September, which marked the lowest level since February 2014. Inflation has been falling rapidly since August 2015, when it reached a peak of 15.8%. September’s result undershot the 6.6% the markets had expected. Inflation is on track to slow to below 6.0% by the end of the year, which is within the Central Bank’s forecast of between 5.0% and 6.0% but is still well above the Bank’s 4.0% target. The inflation trend confirms the downward trajectory: annual average inflation fell from 10.1% in August 9.3% in September.

The Central Bank expects that inflation will end this year within what it has forecast. Russian monetary authorities are confident that inflation will be on track to reach the 4.0% target at the end of 2017. The Consensus view of a panel of analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics is not in line with the Central Bank’s assessment. Our panel sees inflation ending 2016 at 6.6%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panel participants expect inflation to ease to 5.4%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Russia Inflation September 2016

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).


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