Russia Inflation March 2016

Russia

Russia: Inflation continues to fall in March: reaches lowest level in nearly two years

April 5, 2016

Consumer prices rose 0.5% in March over the previous month. The monthly increase was the slowest in seven months and came in below the 0.6% increase observed in February and the 0.6% rise the markets had expected. The Federal Statistics Service reported that the monthly reading reflected a slower increase in prices for food, particularly of fruits due to an oversupply in markets.

Inflation fell from 8.1% in February to 7.3% in March, which represented the lowest level since April 2014. Inflation began to decline in free fall in August 2015from a peak of 15.8%. The rapid fall in inflation toward the end of 2015 and in the first quarter of 2016 continues to reflect a favorable base effect and a recent stabilization in the Russian ruble. That said, inflation remains well above the Central Bank’s target of 4.0%.

The Central Bank indicated that it expects inflation to end 2016 at around 6.0% and that it will be on track to reach the 4.0% inflation target in 2017. The Consensus view of a panel of analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics is not in line with the Central Bank’s assessment. Panelists see inflation ending 2016 at 7.4%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, participants expect inflation to ease to 6.0% .


Author:, Senior Economist

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Russia Inflation March 2016 0

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).


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