Russia Inflation January 2017

Russia

Russia: Inflation continues to fall in January

February 8, 2017

In January, consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month, overshooting the 0.4% increase in December. In its press release, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) stated that January’s result reflected a broad-based increase, with prices for goods rising 0.7% and prices for services increasing 0.4% over the previous month.

Inflation declined from 5.4% in December to 5.0% in January, which was the lowest level since June 2012. Russia’s Central Bank has played an important role in bringing down inflation as well as the stabilization of the Russian ruble.

The inflation trend confirms the downward trajectory: annual average inflation fell from 7.1% in December to 6.7% in January. Most analysts agree that the significant inflation slowdown in January suggests that weak household spending made a substantial contribution to the existing disinflation trend, offsetting the negative effect of the indexation of certain transportation tariffs and excise duties at the beginning of this year.

Inflation ended below the Central Bank’s forecasts of between 5.5% and 6.0% in 2016 and for 2017 Russian monetary authorities are confident that inflation will be on track to reach the 4.0% target at the end of the year. The Consensus view of the panel of analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics is not in line with the Central Bank’s assessment. Panelists see inflation ending 2017 at 4.8%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, participants expect inflation to ease to 4.6%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Russia Inflation Chart


Russia Inflation January 2017

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).


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