Russia Industry February 2016

Russia

Russia: Russia's industrial production rebounds modestly in February

March 16, 2016

Industrial production data for February showed that, for the first time in a year, output was on the upswing. Industrial production increased 1.0% over the same month last year, which surprised substantially on the upside, as the reading overshot the 2.1% contraction the markets had expected and the 2.7% decrease observed in January.

February’s result marked the first increase in year-on-year terms, which following 12 consecutive months of contraction. The rebound mainly reflected a marked acceleration in mining and quarrying, while the pace of contraction in manufacturing moderated. Electricity generation lost momentum in February.

Sequential data showed that industrial production increased in February a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% over the previous month, which followed the 0.9% expansion registered in January.

With January’s increase, the trend changed course. The annual average variation in industrial production rose from minus 3.7% in January to minus 3.5% in February, which suggests that the deterioration in industrial production bottomed out in January and a return to marginal growth is likely in the coming months.

After industrial production in 2015 suffered the worst contraction in six years, our panel of analysts expect output to expand 0.6% in 2016. The projection is unchanged from last month’s forecast. FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to increase 2.0% in 2017.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Russia Industry February 2016 1

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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