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Russia: Russia's industrial output takes another hit

August 17, 2015

Russia’s industrial production decreased in July for sixth consecutive month, but this month’s contraction was slightly less than the previous month’s decline. According to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), industrial production contracted 4.7% annually in July, which came in slightly above both the 4.8% decrease tallied in June and the 4.8% decline the markets had expected.

Manufacturing production continued to be the main drag to industrial output. Manufacturing output fell 7.1% in July over the same month last year, which came in below the 6.6% contraction observed in June. Conversely, mining and quarrying bounced back and increased in July, following three consecutive months of contraction.

Sequential data confirm the mild improvement suggested by the annual data. Industrial production was flat in July compared to the previous month, with data adjusted for seasonal factors. The reading marked a mild improvement over the 0.2% contraction observed in June.

However, the overall trend continued to suggest that Russia’s industrial production continues losing strength rapidly. The annual average growth in industrial output declined from minus 0.5% in June to minus 1.0% in July, which marked the slowest pace since April 2010.

Prospects for industrial production in Russia are grim. FocusEconomics participants expect industrial production to contract 2.2% in 2015, which is unchanged, from last month’s forecast. FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to rebound in 2016 and increase 1.3%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Russia Industry July 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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