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Russia: Pace of decrease in industrial production continues to soften

December 15, 2015

Industrial production continued to contract in November, but the pace of decrease softened. Industrial output contracted 3.5% in November over the same month of the previous month, which was marginally better than the 3.6% decrease observed in October. The reading, nonetheless, came in below the 3.0% decrease the markets had expected. Industrial production has contracted for 10 consecutive months.

November’s contraction stemmed from a further decrease in manufacturing production as well as in electricity generation, gas and water management. In addition, mining and quarrying swung from a 1.4% increase in October to a 0.1% contraction in November.

Sequential data showed that industrial production contracted 0.6% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in November. The result followed the 0.2% contraction registered in October.

With November’s decrease, the trend continued to suggest that a quick recovery in Russian industrial production is not in the cards in the coming months. The annual average variation in industrial output declined from minus 2.4% in October to minus 2.7% in November, which marked the slowest rhythm since March 2010.

After an expected contraction in 2015, industrial production is seen recovering gradually this year. FocusEconomics participants expect industrial production to expand 0.9% in 2016. The projection is unchanged from last month’s forecast. FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to increase 2.1% in 2017.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Russia Industry November 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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