Russia: Industrial output unexpectedly contracts in May
June 18, 2013
In May, industrial production fell 1.4% over the same month last year, which contrasted the 2.3% increase seen in April and market expectations of a 0.6% rise. The decline stemmed from a drop in manufacturing - the largest contributor to industrial output -, which recorded the largest drop in almost four years. In addition, both mining and quarrying as well as electricity, gas and water slowed compared to the previous month.
On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, industrial output fell 0.6% (April: -0.9% mom). As a result of the annual drop, the trend is again pointing downwards, with average annual variation in industrial production falling to 1.3% from 1.7% in April.
The government sees industrial output expanding 3.4% in 2013. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists are less optimistic and expect industrial production to increase 2.5% in 2013, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel expects industrial production growth to accelerate to 3.2%.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions