Russia Industry August 2016

Russia

Russia: Industrial output increases in August

September 15, 2016

Growth in Russian industrial production returned to positive territory in August, following an abrupt contraction in July. Output increased 0.7% year-on-year, overshooting the 0.5% rise the markets had expected and recovering the ground lost in July when output fell 0.3%.

Production in the all-important manufacturing sector swung from a 1.5% contraction in July to a 0.1% increase in August, making it the main driver of industrial production. In addition, mining and quarrying matched July’s 1.8% expansion in August. Meanwhile, other sub-components turned out to be stronger: electricity, gas and water supply accelerated to a 1.3% expansion (July: +0.8% year-on-year).

Data adjusted for seasonal factors showed that industrial production expanded 0.5% over the previous month in August, which contrasted a 0.9% contraction in July.

Due to the increase, the trend continues to point to a slow recovery in the sector. The annual average variation in industrial production rose from minus 1.6% in July to minus 1.2% in August.

Industrial production suffered the worst contraction in six years in 2015 and this year our panel of analysts expects output to recover and expand 0.3%. The projection is up 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to increase 1.9% in 2017.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Russia Industry August 2016

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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