Russia Industry


Russia: Contraction in industrial output continues to soften

November 16, 2015

Industrial output in Russia continued to decrease in October, but the pace of contraction softened. Industrial production contracted 3.6% annually in October, which was marginally better than the 3.7% contraction observed in September, but was better than the 4.2% decrease the markets had expected. Industrial production has contracted for nine consecutive months.

Looking at the sub-indicators, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) mentioned that October’s contraction stemmed from a further decrease in manufacturing production and in public utilities (electricity generation, gas and water management). Conversely, mining and quarrying expanded at the fastest pace since January.

A month-on-month comparison showed that industrial production decreased a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% in October, which contrasted the 0.6% expansion observed in September.

With October’s decrease, the output trend continued to suggest that a recovery in Russian industrial production is not foreseeable in the coming months. The annual average variation in industrial output declined from minus 1.9% in September to minus 2.4% in October, which marked the slowest pace since March 2010.

Prospects for industrial production in Russia are grim. FocusEconomics participants expect industrial production to contract 3.0% in 2015, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to rebound in 2016 and increase 1.1%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection.

Author:, Senior Economist

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Russia Industry Chart

Russia Industry October 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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