Russia: GDP slows on industry
June 17, 2013
According to more detailed figures published by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on 18 June, GDP grew 1.6% in the first quarter over the same period last year. The result was in line with the flash estimate published on 15 May and represents a deterioration compared to the 2.1% expansion recorded in Q4 2012. In addition, the reading marks the slowest expansion since Q4 2009.
At the sector level, the weak reading was largely the result of a contraction in the industrial sector, which fell 1.2% in annual terms, contrasting the 2.3% rise recorded in the previous quarter. In contrast, both agriculture (Q4 2012: -9.1% year-on-year; Q1: +2.3% yoy) and services (Q4: +2.7 yoy; Q1: +3.3% yoy) improved compared to the previous quarter.
The government expects the economy to grow 2.4% in 2013 and 3.7% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect GDP to grow 3.1% in 2013, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. Next year, the panel sees the economy growing 3.5%.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions