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Russia: GDP growth moderates less than expected in Q3

November 13, 2014

Russia’s economy was stronger than expected in the third quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate released by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) on 13 November. GDP rose 0.7% over the same period last year in Q3, which came in only slightly below the 0.8% expansion registered in Q2. The reading also overshot the milder 0.3% rise the markets had expected.

Although a detailed breakdown of the GDP components is not released with the preliminary estimate, analysts suggests that the stronger-than expected Q3 increase stemmed from still strong growth in agricultural and manufacturing output (on a production-based classification). On an expenditure approach, analysts pointed out that a strong restocking of inventories contributed positively to growth. On a sequential basis, analysts suggest that GDP increased around 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q3, which followed the 0.3% rise observed in Q2.

The Russian Central Bank expects GDP growth of 0.8% this year. For 2015, the Bank expects flat GDP growth. Bank Rossii stated that the sanctions imposed by Western economies to Russia are the main cause for a deterioration to economic growth. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project Russia’s GDP to grow a paltry 0.3% in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Panelists expect the economy to increase 0.5% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


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Russia GDP Q3 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes in GDP in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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