Russia: Economy remains weak in Q3
October 30, 2013
The economy expanded 1.2% in the third quarter of 2013 according to a flash estimate published by the Ministry of Economic Development on 30 October. If the final GDP figures Rosstat releases later in November confirm the estimate, the result will be in line with the 1.2% expansion recorded in Q2. The result can be partially attributed to the agricultural sector's weaker-than-expected performance. The country experienced the rainiest September in its history this year, disrupting the harvest in some of the most important rural regions. In September, agricultural output contracted 1.4% on an annual basis in September, despite having a favorable base of comparison: last year, agricultural production fell 8.6% on the back of a severe drought.
According to the Ministry's estimate, the economy contracted 0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis. The government expects the economy to grow 1.8% in 2013. The government believes that the economy will grow 3.0% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 1.8% in 2013, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. Next year, the panel sees the economy growing 2.6%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions