Russia: Economy picks up in Q3
December 12, 2011
In the third quarter, GDP expanded 4.8% over the same period last year, according to revised estimates from 12 December. The reading was above the 3.4% year-on-year growth recorded in Q2 and confirmed the results of the preliminary estimate released on 30 October. The pick-up was driven by agriculture, which expanded 14.5%, (Q2: +1.0% year-on-year). The strong expansion benefited from a favourable base effect, as the agricultural sector contracted 18.8% in the third quarter last year in the wake of the worst drought in half a century. In addition, services picked up from a 2.1% expansion in the second quarter to a 3.9% rise. In contrast, industry expanded 4.2%, moderating from the 4.9% rise recorded in the previous quarter. A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the acceleration suggested by the annual figures, as the economy expanded a seasonally adjusted 1.26% in Q3, up from the 0.28% expansion recorded in the previous quarter. Based on the latest figures, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach estimated that the economy will grow 4.5% this year, up from an official 4.2% forecast. However, he maintained that GDP will grow 3.7%, as previously forecasted.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions