Russia: Disappointing GDP reading in Q3
November 12, 2013
According to the flash estimate published by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on 12 November, GDP grew 1.2% in Q3 over the same period last year. The result was in line with both the 1.2% expansion recorded in Q2 2013 and the estimate released by the Ministry of Economic Development on 30 October. That said, the result came in below market expectations of a 1.4% increase.
Q3's result can be partially attributed to the agricultural sector's weaker-than-expected performance. The country experienced the rainiest September in its history this year, which disrupted the harvest in some of its most important rural regions. Agricultural output contracted 1.4% on an annual basis in September, despite having a favorable base of comparison: last year, agricultural production fell 8.6% on the back of a severe drought.
The government expects the economy to grow 1.8% in 2013 and believes that the economy will grow 3.0% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 1.8% in 2013, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. Next year, the panel sees the economy growing 2.6%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions