Russia: Disappointing GDP growth in Q3
December 30, 2013
In the third quarter of 2013, GDP expanded 1.2% over the same period of the previous year according to revised estimates published on 30 December. The reading was in line with the 1.2% growth recorded in Q2 and confirmed the results of the preliminary estimate released on 12 November.
The expansion was underlined by an improvement in domestic demand and a moderation in the external sector. That said, a negative shift in inventories dragged on the result. Private consumption rose 5.3% over the same period of the previous year (Q2: +5.5% year-on-year), while government consumption expanded 0.1% in annual terms (Q2: -0.2% yoy). Finally, gross fixed investment dropped 0.9%, marking an improvement over the 2.5% fall recorded in Q2.
Meanwhile, exports of goods and services expanded 6.0% in the third quarter (Q2: +4.1% yoy), while imports rose 3.8% (Q2: +1.4% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth deteriorated from 0.9 percentage points in Q2 to 0.7 percentage points in Q3.
A quarter-on-quarter comparison paints a rosier picture than what is suggested by annual figures. The economy expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% in Q3, which contrasted the 0.1% drop recorded in the previous quarter.
The government revised its growth forecasts in December down and now expects the economy to expand 2.5% in 2014, which is below the 3.0% it had previously expected. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 2.5% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. Next year, the panel sees the economy growing 2.8%.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions