Russia: Detailed figures confirm slowest expansion in almost three years
December 29, 2012
In the third quarter, GDP expanded 2.9% over the same period the previous year, according to revised estimates published on 29 December. The reading was below the 4.0% growth recorded in Q2 and confirmed the results of the preliminary estimate released on 12 November. In addition, the third quarter result marked the lowest reading since Q4 2009.
The deceleration was broad-based, as both the domestic and the external sector moderated compared to the previous quarter. Private consumption rose 6.0% over the same period the previous year (Q2: +6.6% yoy), while government consumption contracted 0.4% in annual terms (Q2: 0.0% yoy). Finally, gross fixed investment expanded 7.1%, down from the 7.9% increase recorded in Q2.
Meanwhile, exports of goods and services expanded 2.1% in the third quarter (Q2: -1.4% yoy), while imports rose a stronger 9.6% (Q2: +2.9% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth deteriorated from minus 1.1 percentage points in Q2 to minus 1.8 percentage points in Q3.
A quarter-on-quarter comparison, however, does not corroborate the moderation suggested by annual figures, as the economy expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in Q3, up from the 0.4% expansion recorded in the previous quarter.
The government expects GDP to expand 3.6% in 2013, down from a previous 3.7% forecast, and to accelerate to 4.3% in 2014.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions