Russia: Detailed figures confirm GDP slowdown in Q2
October 2, 2012
In the second quarter, GDP expanded 4.0% over the same period last year, according to revised estimates published on 2 October. The reading was below the 4.9% year-on-year growth recorded in Q1 and confirmed the results of the preliminary estimate released on 10 August. The deceleration was broad-based, as both the domestic and the external sector moderated compared to the previous quarter. Private consumption rose 6.6% over the same period last year (Q1: +7.2% yoy), while government consumption was flat in annual terms (Q1: -0.5% yoy). Finally, gross fixed investment expanded 7.9%, which was almost half the 15.0% increase recorded in Q1. Meanwhile, exports of goods and services contracted 1.4% in the second quarter (Q1: +4.4% yoy), while imports expanded 2.9% (Q1: +10.2% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth deteriorated from minus 0.5 percentage points in Q1 to minus 1.1 percentage points in Q2. A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the moderation suggested by annual figures, as the economy expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.10% in Q2, down from the 0.61% expansion recorded in the previous quarter. The government expects GDP to expand 3.5% in 2012, up from its previous 3.4% forecast.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions