Russia: Rouble weakens in November
December 1, 2011
By 30 November, the Russian rouble (RUB) had depreciated 4.5% in nominal terms over the previous month and was trading at RUB 31.32 per USD. The November drop contrasted a 6.6% appreciation in October and marked a return to the downward trend in place since August, which was only temporarily interrupted in October. The rouble has now depreciated an accumulated 2.7% versus the USD this year and is currently trading at the same level as November last year. The declining value of the rouble since August has shadowed the trajectory of the price of Ural oil, Russia's main export commodity, and reflects uncertainty regarding the prospects of the global economy. Tensions on the political front are expected to add to the downward pressure on the rouble. In addition, capital outflows continue to play an important part in the currency's deterioration. In the January-October period, capital outflows totalled USD 64.0 billion and the government expects flows to rise to USD 80.0 billion by the end of the year, which exceeds earlier forecasts of USD 70 billion.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions