Romania: GDP grows at fastest pace in over 5 years
December 4, 2013
In the third quarter of 2013, GDP expanded 4.1% over the same quarter of the previous year according to more detailed data published on 4 December. The reading matched the preliminary estimate, significantly overshooting the 1.5% expansion recorded in the second quarter. The expansion marks the fastest pace since Q2 2008.
The improvement in Q3 reflects an acceleration in total consumption. Private consumption rose 1.6% in Q3, which was up from the 0.4% increase recorded in Q2, while government consumption contracted 3.2% (Q2: -0.2% year-on-year). Fixed investment deteriorated from a 2.9% fall in Q2 to a 4.0% decrease in Q3.
On the external side of the economy, exports rose 19.1%, which marked an improvement over the 14.5% increase reported in the second quarter. Conversely, imports rose 4.4% (Q2: +0.1% yoy). As a consequence, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth decreased from plus 8.6 percentage points in Q2 to plus 5.5 percentage points in Q3.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 1.6% in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q3, which met the preliminary estimate and was above the 0.8% expansion recorded in Q2.
The government expects GDP to expand 2.2% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 2.5% in 2014, which is unchanged over the previous month's projection. For 2015, the panel expects the economy to expand 2.9%.
Author: Dirina Mançellari, Senior Economist