Romania: GDP drops at softer pace in Q3
According to a flash estimate released on 13 November, GDP slid 6.0% year-on-year in the third quarter—a less pronounced drop than Q2’s record-breaking 10.3% plunge—as the gradual relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions allowed for some recovery in activity.
Meanwhile, on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity expanded 5.6% in Q3, contrasting Q2’s 12.2% dive and marking the best upturn on record. However, the quarterly increase was below market analysts’ expectations of a 7.2% expansion.
Comprehensive third-quarter national accounts data will be released on 8 December.
Commenting on Q3’s flash estimate and what to expect for the last quarter of the year, Valentin Tataru, Romania economist at ING, noted:
“We have a relatively long-standing GDP forecast of -5.5% for this year which we maintain, although this means that the economy should advance by almost 1% in the fourth quarter versus the third. This looks a bit ambitious now but given the less drastic restrictive measures adopted in recent months, we believe that growth can still occur in the fourth quarter.”