Romania GDP Q3 2020

Romania

Romania: GDP drops at softer pace in Q3

November 13, 2020

According to a flash estimate released on 13 November, GDP slid 6.0% year-on-year in the third quarter—a less pronounced drop than Q2’s record-breaking 10.3% plunge—as the gradual relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions allowed for some recovery in activity.

Meanwhile, on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity expanded 5.6% in Q3, contrasting Q2’s 12.2% dive and marking the best upturn on record. However, the quarterly increase was below market analysts’ expectations of a 7.2% expansion.

Comprehensive third-quarter national accounts data will be released on 8 December.

Commenting on Q3’s flash estimate and what to expect for the last quarter of the year, Valentin Tataru, Romania economist at ING, noted:

“We have a relatively long-standing GDP forecast of -5.5% for this year which we maintain, although this means that the economy should advance by almost 1% in the fourth quarter versus the third. This looks a bit ambitious now but given the less drastic restrictive measures adopted in recent months, we believe that growth can still occur in the fourth quarter.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast analysts see GDP expanding 4.5% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, analysts see growth at 3.8%.


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Romania GDP Q3  20 20

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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