Romania GDP


Romania: Economy slows in Q1

June 4, 2014

In the first quarter, the economy expanded 3.8% over the same period last year according to more detailed data released on 4 June. The figure met the preliminary estimate and marked the slowest expansion since Q2 2013. Q1’s expansion was a deceleration from the 5.4% increase recorded in the previous quarter.

Q1’s result came on the back of a deceleration in the external sector while the domestic sector performed better compared to the previous quarter. Private consumption grew 6.7% over the same quarter last year (Q4: +2.9% year-on-year), which reached the fastest growth pace since Q3 2008. Government consumption rose 1.1% (Q4: +3.8% yoy). Fixed investment fell 7.8% (Q4: -2.6% qoq).

On the external side of the economy, exports decelerated from a 16.6% increase in Q4 to a 9.7% increase in Q1. Conversely, imports rose 8.5%, which was up from the 5.0% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth swung from plus 4.3 percentage points in Q4 to minus 1.4 percentage points in Q1.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 0.1% in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q1, which met the preliminary estimate but undershot the 1.4% expansion observed in Q4.

The government expects GDP to expand 2.2% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 2.5% in 2014, which is unchanged over the previous month’s projection. For 2015, the panel expects the economy to expand 2.9%.

Author:, Senior Economist

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Romania GDP Chart

Romania GDP Q1 2014 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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