Romania: Economy rebounds on private consumption
March 6, 2013
In the fourth quarter, GDP expanded 0.3% over the same period the previous year, according to detailed data published on 6 March. The print matched the flash estimate released on 14 February and contrasted the 0.3% contraction recorded in the third quarter.
The expansion came on the back of an improvement in private consumption and a positive contribution to growth from the external sector. Private consumption expanded 0.9% in the fourth quarter (Q3 2012: -1.3% year-on-year), whereas government expenditure added only 0.1%. On the other hand, gross fixed investment plunged 4.2% (Q3: +8.0% yoy).
Meanwhile, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth improved, as exports moderated the pace of contraction while imports deteriorated further. Exports of goods and services contracted 4.2% in the fourth quarter (Q3: -5.4% yoy), while imports fell a deeper 4.3% (Q3: -2.2% yoy).
A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the improvement suggested by the annual figures. GDP rose a revised 0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms in the fourth quarter (previously reported: +0.2% qoq), which contrasted the 0.3% decrease recorded in Q3, thus averting a technical recession.
In the full year 2012, the economy expanded 0.3%, well below the 2.2% expansion recorded in 2011. The government expects GDP to expand 1.6% this year before accelerating to 2.2% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy to grow 1.4% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month's projection. For next year, the panel expects the economy to expand 2.5%.