Romania Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020Following a record GDP drop in Q2, available data points to a gradual recovery in Q3. Industrial output fell less steeply in August, improving for the fourth month running. This, coupled with a softer drop in merchandise exports in July–August and stronger economic sentiment in Q3 compared to Q2, hints at a pickup in private sector activity. Less positively, surging Covid-19 cases prompted authorities to extend the state of alert on 15 October for a month and introduce new restrictions in Bucharest, boding ill for the recovery in Q4. In politics, polls indicate that the ruling pro-market PNL party is leading the race in the run-up to December’s general elections, although it is unlikely to secure an absolute parliamentary majority. Lastly, on 30 October, Fitch Ratings affirmed the country’s BBB- rating with a negative outlook, citing its moderate public debt.
Romania Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to contract at the sharpest pace in over a decade this year before rebounding strongly in 2021. Strengthening foreign demand, particularly from German industry, is expected to bolster domestic production and ramp up exports. Nonetheless, the unpredictable course of the pandemic and political uncertainty ahead of the elections cloud the outlook. Our analysts see the economy growing 4.5% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2022.
Romania Economy Data
5 years of Romania economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.49||0.23 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||4.26||-0.34 %||Dec 31|
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Romania Economic News
February 12, 2021
Consumer prices rose 1.33% over the previous month in January, picking up from the 0.34% increase logged in December.
February 12, 2021
Industrial production expanded 1.6% in annual terms in December 2020 (November: +0.5% yoy).
January 15, 2021
In an unscheduled meeting held on 15 January, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) unexpectedly axed the policy rate from 1.50% to a new record low of 1.25%.
January 14, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.34% over the previous month in December, picking up from November's 0.13% increase.
January 13, 2021
Industrial production grew 0.4% year-on-year in November, easing from October’s 0.9% November’s result largely reflected expanding electricity supply output.