Romania Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018Economic growth accelerated in the third quarter, likely due to rising public spending. Data for the January-September period, for example, shows that the budget deficit more than doubled year-on-year, mainly due to public salary hikes. The widening deficit, together with the government’s wage and pensions hike plans, prompted the IMF at the end of its November staff visit to suggest that the country undertake substantial fiscal consolidation. In mid-November, Fitch Ratings also cited both points as risks to future macroeconomic stability, although nevertheless affirmed Romania at BBB-, with a stable outlook due to moderate levels of government debt. On 19 November, Prime Minister Viorica Dancila announced a government reshuffle, likely the result of an internal party struggle. The move is expected to give Liviu Dragnea, leader of the ruling Social Democratic Party and kingmaker of Romania’s government, a tighter grip over the cabinet.
Romania Economic GrowthA moderation in growth is expected in 2019, mainly due to slowing private consumption amid softening wage growth and weaker job gains. On the other hand, fixed investment should gain steam, although the scope of the acceleration could be limited by weakening business confidence and capital outflows due to the country’s sizeable twin deficits and frequent squabbles with the European institutions over controversial judicial reforms. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.4% for 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.
Romania Economy Data
5 years of Romania economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.77||0.23 %||Dec 12|
|Exchange Rate||4.11||-0.34 %||Dec 12|
|Stock Market||8,568||-0.59 %||Dec 12|
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Romania Economic News
December 12, 2018
Industrial output expanded 3.5% in annual terms in October, well above September's 0.5% growth rate, which had marked the weakest record in 17 months.
December 12, 2018
Consumer prices dropped 0.1% over the previous month in November, contrasting October’s 0.5% increase.
December 10, 2018
A second estimate released on 7 December by the Statistical Institute (INSSE) confirmed that the economy expanded 4.3% over the same period of 2017 in the third quarter, slightly above the second quarter’s 4.1% expansion.
November 14, 2018
According to a preliminary estimate released by the National Institute of Statistics on 14 November, the economy expanded 4.3% in the third quarter over the same period last year, gradually accelerating from the second quarter (Q2: +4.1% year-on-year). Although a breakdown by components is not yet available, tightening labor market conditions and some moderation in inflation suggest household spending expanded at a healthy pace in the quarter.
November 12, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.5% over the previous month in October, matching September’s increase.