Romania Economic Forecast

Romania Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

A detailed breakdown confirmed that year-on-year GDP growth cooled in the third quarter, amid softer increases in both domestic and external demand. Underlying momentum seemingly remained subdued in the final quarter of last year, according to available data. Retail sales dropped in monthly terms in October amid rising Covid-19 infections, and stubbornly high inflation in November likely continued to weigh on household spending. Moreover, industrial production fell in monthly terms in October, restrained by protracted supply shortages. However, household spending could have benefited at the tail end of the quarter from the easing of restrictions in early December. Meanwhile, President Klaus Iohannis endorsed the 2022 state budget in late December, after approval from parliament. The budget projects a deficit of 5.8% of GDP for 2022 and includes a freezing of public wages and compensation for all state employees.

Romania Economic Growth

GDP growth should moderate in 2022 compared to 2021, although it will remain solid amid unleashed pent-up spending, incoming EU funds and accommodative policies. That said, protracted supply disruptions, elevated inflation and the possible reinstatement of restrictions pose key downside risks. Our analysts see the economy growing 4.5% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2023.

Romania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)19.919.819.619.519.5
GDP per capita (EUR)8,0748,6329,54510,47211,430
GDP (EUR bn)160171188204223
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.94.87.14.44.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.88.410.07.26.0
Investment (annual variation in %)7.20.03.5-1.017.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.81.87.83.5-3.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)9.512.410.85.57.2
Unemployment Rate6.85.95.04.23.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-2.6-2.6-2.9-4.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.837.335.134.735.2
Money (annual variation in %)9.49.811.58.910.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.9-0.53.33.34.0
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.4-1.11.14.13.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.751.751.752.502.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-1.11.29.4-4.835.1
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.524.544.664.664.78
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.444.494.574.654.75
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.2-2.0-3.4-4.4-4.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.0-3.6-6.0-9.2-10.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-7.8-9.3-12.2-14.8-17.0
Exports (EUR billion)49.152.257.261.963.0
Imports (EUR billion)56.961.569.476.780.0
Exports (annual variation in %)4.96.39.68.21.8
Imports (annual variation in %)6.68.112.810.54.3
International Reserves (EUR)32.234.233.533.132.9
External Debt (% of GDP)59.055.352.048.847.4

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Romania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield4.490.23 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate4.26-0.34 %Dec 31

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