Romania Economic Outlook
September 8, 2020GDP contracted at a record pace in Q2, as the coronavirus pandemic and associated lockdown measures wreaked havoc on the economy. Although a breakdown of the components is not yet available, both the external and the domestic sectors seem to have slumped. Industrial output nosedived throughout the quarter which, coupled with souring economic sentiment, points to a sustained decline in private sector activity. Moreover, retail sales took a significant hit in April-May, and recovered only limited ground in June. This, together with a rising unemployment rate and a notable weakening in wage dynamics, suggests that private consumption shrank considerably in Q2. On top of that, freefalling exports indicate depressed global demand. Turning to Q3, recovering but still downbeat business confidence in July-August and a further uptick in the unemployment rate in July indicate prolonged weakness.
Romania Economic GrowthThe economy is projected to shrink markedly this year due to the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Lockdown measures are set to hammer domestic activity, while a weak economic environment in the EU and disrupted global value chains will weigh on the external sector. Frail fiscal accounts pose a further downside risk. Our analysts see the economy contracting 5.4% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before expanding 4.6% in 2021.
Romania Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||4.49||0.23 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||4.26||-0.34 %||Dec 31|
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Romania Economic News
September 14, 2020
Industrial production declined 9.9% on a working-day and seasonally-adjusted year-on-year basis in July, a smaller contraction than June’s 14.3% drop.
September 10, 2020
Consumer prices dropped a seasonally-adjusted 0.05% from the previous month in August, broadly stable from the flat result seen in July.
September 9, 2020
A second release showed that the economy contracted 10.5% on an annual basis in Q2, contrasting Q1’s 2.4% growth, as Covid-19 containment measures took their toll.
August 14, 2020
The economy received a massive blow in the second quarter due to the constraining effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
August 12, 2020
Consumer prices were flat over the last month in July, below June's 0.08% rise.