Romania Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020
Following a record GDP drop in Q2, available data points to a gradual recovery in Q3. Industrial output fell less steeply in August, improving for the fourth month running. This, coupled with a softer drop in merchandise exports in July–August and stronger economic sentiment in Q3 compared to Q2, hints at a pickup in private sector activity. Less positively, surging Covid-19 cases prompted authorities to extend the state of alert on 15 October for a month and introduce new restrictions in Bucharest, boding ill for the recovery in Q4. In politics, polls indicate that the ruling pro-market PNL party is leading the race in the run-up to December’s general elections, although it is unlikely to secure an absolute parliamentary majority. Lastly, on 30 October, Fitch Ratings affirmed the country’s BBB- rating with a negative outlook, citing its moderate public debt.Romania Economic Growth
The economy is expected to contract at the sharpest pace in over a decade this year before rebounding strongly in 2021. Strengthening foreign demand, particularly from German industry, is expected to bolster domestic production and ramp up exports. Nonetheless, the unpredictable course of the pandemic and political uncertainty ahead of the elections cloud the outlook. Our analysts see the economy growing 4.5% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2022.Romania Economy Data
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Romania Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.49 | 0.23 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 4.26 | -0.34 % | Dec 31 |
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Romania Economic News
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Romania: Industrial output grows at fastest pace in nearly two years in October
December 14, 2020
Industrial output grew 1.2% year-on-year in October, contrasting September's 2.8% decrease, and marking the best result since March 2019.
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Romania: Inflation recedes in November
December 11, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.13% from the previous month in November, moderating from the 0.22% rise logged in October.
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Romania: GDP contracts at more moderate rate in Q3
December 8, 2020
A second release confirmed that the economy contracted at a milder pace of 6.0% year-on-year in the third quarter, following Q2’s unprecedented 10.3% plunge, as the gradual lifting of Covid-19-related restrictions allowed for the resumption of activity.
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Romania: December parliamentary elections decisive for government’s fiscal stance amid pensions dispute
December 6, 2020
On 6 December, the country is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections.
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Romania: GDP drops at softer pace in Q3
November 13, 2020
According to a flash estimate released on 13 November, GDP slid 6.0% year-on-year in the third quarter—a less pronounced drop than Q2’s record-breaking 10.3% plunge—as the gradual relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions allowed for some recovery in activity.
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