Romania Economic Outlook
January 14, 2020
Activity likely remained subdued in Q4 2019, after growth slowed to an over five-year low in Q3 as both the industrial and external sectors felt the pinch of protracted weakness in the EU. Industrial production contracted at a sharper pace in October, showing the industrial sector was not yet out of the doldrums. However, retail sales expanded solidly in October-November, supported by a tight labor market. On the political scene, on 10 January, Prime Minister Ludovic Orban announced he reached an agreement with President Klaus Iohannis to organize procedures to hold snap elections. A working group was set up to secure support from Parliament and determine the date of the elections, which look set to be held as closely as possible to local elections due in May-June. Moreover, in mid-December, the government approved the 2020 budget, which targets a fiscal deficit of 3.6% of GDP, well above the EU’s 3.0% limit.Romania Economic Growth
Growth is set to cool this year. Softening wage growth should weigh on consumer spending, while political uncertainty and a volatile external backdrop are expected to restrain investment activity. The country’s fragile fiscal and external positions skew risks to the downside. Our analysts see growth at 3.2% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2021.Romania Economy Data
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Romania Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.49 | 0.23 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 4.26 | -0.34 % | Dec 31 |
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Romania Economic News
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Romania: Inflation edges up in December
January 15, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in December, up from November’s 0.2% uptick.
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Romania: Industrial output contracts at sharpest pace in over a decade in November
January 15, 2020
Industrial production dived 7.7% year-on-year in seasonally- and working day-adjusted terms in November, following October’s 7.6% fall and marking the sharpest contraction since May 2009.
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Romania: NBR holds its ground at the start of the year
January 8, 2020
On 8 January, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept the policy rate unchanged at 2.50%, while also leaving the deposit facility rate at 1.50%, the lending facility (Lombard) rate at 3.50% and maintaining the reserve requirements on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities.
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Romania: Industrial production contracts in October at sharpest rate in over a decade
December 12, 2019
Industrial production dived 7.7% on an annual basis in October, following September’s 1.2% fall and marking the sharpest contraction since May 2009.
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Romania: Inflation rebounds in November
December 11, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in November, down from October’s 0.4% increase.
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