Romania Economic Outlook
September 3, 2019
GDP grew solidly in the second quarter, overshooting expectations, although was still below the first quarter’s pace. Private consumption likely remained in the driver’s seat: The unemployment rate came in at an over decade low in Q2 and retail sales grew steadily, although slower than in Q1. However, the industrial sector was downbeat, with production contracting for the first time since 2009. Moreover, the country’s political scene has become more uncertain after the junior coalition partner, ALDE, withdrew from the alliance on 26 August. The implications are currently up in the air, given the country’s already busy election cycle and the seemingly limited appetite for a snap vote or to address fiscal challenges. A confidence vote is expected to be held before mid-October and the possibility of a caretaker government, early elections or a revamped coalition are all still on the table.Romania Economic Growth
The outlook was revised up a notch this month, following a solid outturn in Q2. Growth is expected to remain healthy as a tight labor market fuels consumption, and thanks to improved private-sector and EU-led investment. That said, slowing exports against a backdrop of subdued external demand will eat into momentum. The precarious fiscal position is a key risk to prospects ahead. Our analysts see growth at 3.9% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.Romania Economy Data
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Romania Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.07 | 0.23 % | Sep 04 |
| Exchange Rate | 4.29 | -0.34 % | Sep 04 |
| Stock Market | 9,262 | -0.59 % | Sep 04 |
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Romania Economic News
Romania: Industrial output falls for a second consecutive month in July
September 12, 2019
Industrial output fell 3.0% on an annual basis in July, an improvement from June’s 6.2% contraction but marking the second fall in a row.
Romania: Inflation recedes in August
September 11, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month in August, contrasting July’s 0.2% decline.
Romania: Growth moderates in Q2 but remains strong nonetheless
September 6, 2019
GDP grew 4.4% year-on-year in the second quarter (Q1: +5.0% year-on-year), according to a comprehensive estimate released by Romania’s Statistical Institute on 6 September.
Romania: Growth moderates in Q2 but remains strong nonetheless
August 14, 2019
Romania’s economy grew 4.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 14 August.
Romania: Inflation rises in July
August 12, 2019
Consumer prices declined 0.2% month-on-month in July, matching June’s print.
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