Romania Economic Forecast

Romania Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

Flash estimates for annual GDP growth in Q1 indicate that the economy beat market expectations, growing more than twice as fast as in Q4. A breakdown of the reading is not yet available. This said, fairly upbeat retail sales and economic sentiment in the quarter suggest household spending may have held up better than expected; the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in March likely boosted activity. Meanwhile, industrial production contracted in annual terms in Q1, plagued by supply-chain disruptions which were compounded by the war in Ukraine. Turning to Q2, the government support to households and SMEs, and resilient economic sentiment, are likely playing a losing game against conflagratory inflation and tighter monetary policy. On 24 May, the European Commission presented a report calling for Romania’s admission into the Schengen zone—which would boost long-term growth prospects.

Romania Economic Growth

In 2022, economic expansion will be softer than in 2021. A fading base effect, the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war, and tighter monetary policy will constrain growth prospects. However, EU-backed investments should provide some counterbalance. Decades-high inflation, new Covid-19 variants and potentially slower-than-expected absorption of EU funds pose risks. Our analysts see the economy growing 3.5% in 2022, which is up 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2023.

Romania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)19.919.819.619.519.5
GDP per capita (EUR)8,0748,6329,54510,47211,430
GDP (EUR bn)160171188204223
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.94.87.14.44.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.88.410.07.26.0
Investment (annual variation in %)7.20.03.5-1.017.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.81.87.83.5-3.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)9.512.410.85.57.2
Unemployment Rate6.85.95.04.23.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-2.6-2.6-2.9-4.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.837.335.134.735.2
Money (annual variation in %)9.49.811.58.910.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.9-0.53.33.34.0
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.4-1.11.14.13.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.751.751.752.502.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-1.11.29.4-4.835.1
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.524.544.664.664.78
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.444.494.574.654.75
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.2-2.0-3.4-4.4-4.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.0-3.6-6.0-9.2-10.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-7.8-9.3-12.2-14.8-17.0
Exports (EUR billion)49.152.257.261.963.0
Imports (EUR billion)56.961.569.476.780.0
Exports (annual variation in %)4.96.39.68.21.8
Imports (annual variation in %)6.68.112.810.54.3
International Reserves (EUR)32.234.233.533.132.9
External Debt (% of GDP)59.055.352.048.847.4

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Romania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield4.490.23 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate4.26-0.34 %Dec 31

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