Romania Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022
Flash estimates for annual GDP growth in Q1 indicate that the economy beat market expectations, growing more than twice as fast as in Q4. A breakdown of the reading is not yet available. This said, fairly upbeat retail sales and economic sentiment in the quarter suggest household spending may have held up better than expected; the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in March likely boosted activity. Meanwhile, industrial production contracted in annual terms in Q1, plagued by supply-chain disruptions which were compounded by the war in Ukraine. Turning to Q2, the government support to households and SMEs, and resilient economic sentiment, are likely playing a losing game against conflagratory inflation and tighter monetary policy. On 24 May, the European Commission presented a report calling for Romania’s admission into the Schengen zone—which would boost long-term growth prospects.Romania Economic Growth
In 2022, economic expansion will be softer than in 2021. A fading base effect, the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war, and tighter monetary policy will constrain growth prospects. However, EU-backed investments should provide some counterbalance. Decades-high inflation, new Covid-19 variants and potentially slower-than-expected absorption of EU funds pose risks. Our analysts see the economy growing 3.5% in 2022, which is up 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2023.Romania Economy Data
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Romania Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.49 | 0.23 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 4.26 | -0.34 % | Dec 31 |
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Romania Economic News
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Romania: Industrial output falls at a softer pace in July
September 14, 2022
Industrial output decreased 0.9% compared to the same month a year earlier in July, which was a less pronounced drop than June's 2.1% decrease.
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Romania: Inflation comes in at highest level since October 2003 in August
September 12, 2022
Inflation increased to 15.3% in August, above July’s 15.0%.
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Romania: GDP growth moderates but beats expectations again in Q2
August 17, 2022
According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth slowed to 5.3% year on year in the second quarter, from 6.4% in the first quarter.
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Romania: Industrial output deteriorates in June
August 12, 2022
Industrial production slid 3.6% year on year in June (May: +0.5% yoy).
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Romania: Inflation falls in July
August 11, 2022
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.89% over the previous month in July, accelerating from the 0.76% rise seen in June.
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