Romania Economic Outlook
March 6, 2018GDP growth continued at a strong rate in the fourth quarter in year-on-year terms, although the pace moderated from the third quarter. While a breakdown is not yet available, buoyant retail sales and declining unemployment in Q4 suggest growth continued to be driven by household consumption. The figure brought growth for 2017 to the highest level in nine years. However, the current account deficit almost doubled from 2016 on surging imports. Robust growth likewise translated into surging profits and declining Non-Performing Loans for Romanian banks, which bodes well for credit provision. In January, new car registrations jumped, putting the important automotive sector on a strong footing at the start of the year. Meanwhile, the political situation remains tense. In late February, there were large protests against the justice minister’s move to seek the dismissal of the chief of the anti-corruption directorate. Unrest, if protracted, could affect investor sentiment.
Romania Economic GrowthThe economy should shift into a lower gear this year but nevertheless expand robustly, driven by consumer spending, which will be restrained by rising inflation and more moderate wage growth. Fixed investment growth is expected to gain steam on increased disbursements of EU funds and healthy credit expansion. However, a widening fiscal deficit limits the government’s room for maneuver in case of unexpected shocks, while continuing political turbulence constitutes the main downward risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.5% for 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. They see the economy expanding 3.6% in 2019.
Romania Economy Data
5 years of Romania economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.61||0.23 %||Mar 15|
|Exchange Rate||3.77||-0.34 %||Mar 15|
|Stock Market||8,688||-0.59 %||Mar 15|
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Romania Economic News
March 14, 2018
Industrial output expanded a strong 8.5% in annual terms in January, up from December’s already robust 7.9% growth rate.
Romania: Inflation hits fresh multi-year high in February moving further above the Central Bank’s target
March 13, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February over the previous month, which was well below January’s 0.8% rise.
March 7, 2018
A second estimate released on 7 March by the Statistical Institute (INSSE) confirmed the economy expanded 6.9% over the same period in the previous year in the fourth quarter, moderating from the third quarter’s multi-year high of 8.8%.
February 14, 2018
In the fourth quarter, the economy expanded a strong 6.9% over the same period last year, according to a preliminary estimate released by the National Institute of Statistics on 14 February.
February 14, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.8% in January over the previous month, which was well above December’s 0.3% increase.