Romania Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021A second release confirmed that GDP expanded solidly in Q2, largely on the back of firming domestic activity. That said, slower growth in sequential terms highlights that the annual reading was flattered by a low base effect. Turning to Q3, available indicators point to a bumpy start: Industrial output increased at a markedly slower rate at the outset of the quarter, which, coupled with easing export growth, hints at downbeat private sector activity. Moreover, private consumption appeared to wane, as evidenced by weaker growth in retail sales and higher unemployment in July. Moving forward, record-high Covid-19 infection rates in late September and a suffocated healthcare system are bound to weigh on activity heading into Q4. On a brighter note, on 27 September the European Commission approved the country’s recovery plan, paving the way for the disbursement of EUR 29.2 billion of EU funds.
Romania Economic GrowthGDP will expand robustly this year, supported by the release of pent-up domestic and foreign demand, before growth moderates next year in line with a fading base effect. However, risks are tilted to the downside: A still-low vaccination rate renders the country highly susceptible to Covid-19 flare-ups, while lingering political instability further clouds the outlook. Our analysts see the economy growing 7.0% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Romania Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||4.49||0.23 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||4.26||-0.34 %||Dec 31|
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Romania Economic News
September 14, 2021
Industrial output grew 5.8% year-on-year in July, moderating from June’s 12.8% increase.
September 10, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.24% over the previous month in August, slowing down from the 0.97% rise logged in July.
September 7, 2021
A second release confirmed that GDP bounced back, expanding 13.0% year-on-year in the second quarter, matching the preliminary reading and contrasting the 0.2% contraction recorded in the first quarter.
August 17, 2021
The economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter, with GDP expanding 13.0% year-on-year, swinging from the 0.2% contraction recorded in Q1.
August 12, 2021
Industrial output grew 12.5% in year-on-year terms in June, moderating from May’s 30.5% jump.