Romania Economic Outlook
October 2, 2018Detailed data shows that GDP growth inched up in the second quarter, sustained by a robust expansion in consumer spending and a less negative contribution from the external sector. That said, the increase in private consumption was the weakest since Q4 2016. Moreover its pace of expansion decelerated for the third consecutive quarter, while fixed investment contracted, highlighting serious difficulties in the absorption of EU funds. Meanwhile, available figures for the third quarter suggest the economy has shifted into a lower gear from the impressive growth rates recorded in 2017. The healthy but decelerating retail sales growth in July indicates consumer spending has likely continued to increase, supported by a tight labor market but eroded by stubbornly high inflation. In the same month, construction output plunged in annual terms, which bodes poorly for fixed investment. Moreover, data for January–August shows that the budget deficit ballooned from last year, making negotiations with the European Commission on deficit containment more difficult.
Romania Economic GrowthGrowth will decelerate further next year, restrained by cooling consumer spending and government sluggishness in using EU funds. Unless measures to reduce fiscal and current account deficits are taken, they will add to economic and financial instability in case of capital outflows stemming from the Fed tightening cycle and financial turbulence in emerging markets. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.9% for 2018 and 3.5% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Romania Economy Data
5 years of Romania economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.05||0.23 %||Oct 12|
|Exchange Rate||4.02||-0.34 %||Oct 12|
|Stock Market||8,394||-0.59 %||Oct 12|
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Romania Economic News
October 10, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.5% over the previous month in September, following August’s softer 0.3% increase.
October 4, 2018
At its monetary policy meeting on 3 October, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.50%.
September 12, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.3% over the previous month in August, contrasting July’s 0.5% drop.
September 12, 2018
Industrial output expanded 7.3% in annual terms in July, a six-month high and a notable acceleration from June’s 4.6% growth rate.
September 7, 2018
A second estimate released on 7 September by the Statistical Institute (INSSE) confirmed that the economy expanded 4.1% over the same period last year in the second quarter, a notch above the first quarter’s 4.0% expansion.