Romania Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022
Flash estimates for annual GDP growth in Q1 indicate that the economy beat market expectations, growing more than twice as fast as in Q4. A breakdown of the reading is not yet available. This said, fairly upbeat retail sales and economic sentiment in the quarter suggest household spending may have held up better than expected; the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in March likely boosted activity. Meanwhile, industrial production contracted in annual terms in Q1, plagued by supply-chain disruptions which were compounded by the war in Ukraine. Turning to Q2, the government support to households and SMEs, and resilient economic sentiment, are likely playing a losing game against conflagratory inflation and tighter monetary policy. On 24 May, the European Commission presented a report calling for Romania’s admission into the Schengen zone—which would boost long-term growth prospects.Romania Economic Growth
In 2022, economic expansion will be softer than in 2021. A fading base effect, the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war, and tighter monetary policy will constrain growth prospects. However, EU-backed investments should provide some counterbalance. Decades-high inflation, new Covid-19 variants and potentially slower-than-expected absorption of EU funds pose risks. Our analysts see the economy growing 3.5% in 2022, which is up 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2023.Romania Economy Data
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Romania Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.49 | 0.23 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 4.26 | -0.34 % | Dec 31 |
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Romania Economic News
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Romania: Industrial activity falls at sharpest rate since June 2020 in April
June 14, 2022
Industrial output nosedived 8.7% year on year in April (March: -1.9% yoy).
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Romania: Inflation increases in May
June 10, 2022
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.18% in May over the previous month, slowing down from April's 3.74% increase.
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Romania: Industrial activity deteriorates in March
May 13, 2022
Industrial output declined 1.6% in year-on-year terms in March, which contrasted February's 0.7% increase.
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Romania: NBR speeds up policy tightening with sixth consecutive rate hike in May
May 10, 2022
At its meeting on 10 May, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) raised the policy rate to 3.75% from April’s 3.00%, thus marking the sixth successive hike.
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Romania: Industrial output grows in February
April 13, 2022
Industrial output increased 0.6% compared to the same month a year earlier in February, following January's 0.4%.
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