Portugal GDP


Portugal: Growth stalls in Q3

November 30, 2015

GDP recorded flat growth at a seasonally-adjusted rate over the previous quarter in Q3, according to detailed data published by Statistics Portugal on 30 November. The expansion was below the 0.5% rise tallied in the previous quarter and marked the lowest reading since Q1 2014. On an annual basis, the economy grew 1.4% in Q3, which was a tad below Q2’s 1.6% rise and marked the softest growth in three quarters.

The slowdown observed in Q3 came on the back of a contraction in domestic demand, which more than offset a rebound of the external sector on lower imports. Private consumption expanded 0.5% in Q3 over the previous quarter, which was below the 1.0% rise tallied in Q2. Government spending fell 0.6% in Q3 (Q2: -0.8% quarter-on-quarter). Finally, fixed investment recorded its worst performance since Q1 2014, falling 2.9% in Q3 (Q2: +1.5% qoq).

Exports of goods and services in Q3 fell 2.1% over the previous quarter, which contrasted the 3.2% rise tallied in Q2. Imports contracted 3.1% in Q3, falling sharply from the 4.7% rise tallied in Q2. As a result of the strong decline in imports, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth swung from minus 0.7 percentage points in Q2 to plus 0.5 percentage points in Q3.

The Bank of Portugal expects the economy to expand 1.7% in 2015 and 1.9% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.5% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel foresees the economy growing 1.7%.

Author:, Economist

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Portugal GDP Chart

Portugal GDP Q3 2015 1

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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