Portugal GDP


Portugal: GDP expansion slightly stronger than expected

November 28, 2014

GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% in Q3 over the previous quarter according to more detailed data published by Statistics Portugal on 28 November. The expansion was slightly above the 0.2% increase reported in the preliminary estimate and mirrored Q2’s result. On an annual basis, the economy grew 1.1% in Q3, which was slightly above the 0.9% rise tallied in Q2.

According to Statistics Portugal, the expansion tallied in Q3 was driven by an improvement in domestic demand. Private consumption rose to a nearly five-year high, growing 1.3% (Q2: 0.0% quarter-on-quarter): In addition, fixed investment accelerated, increasing 2.2% (Q2: 2.0% qoq). Conversely, government consumption decreased 0.4%, which followed Q2’s 0.3% contraction.

The external sector’s net contribution to overall growth swung from plus 1.1 percentage points in Q2 to minus 0.8 percentage points in Q3. Exports of goods and services rose 0.7% over the previous quarter, which was a significant slowdown from Q2’s 2.7% rise. Imports swung from a 0.1% decrease in the second quarter to a 2.7% expansion in Q3, which marked the highest reading in over one year.

The Bank of Portugal expects the economy to expand 1.1% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that GDP will expand 0.9% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2015, the panel expects economic growth to accelerate to 1.5%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Portugal GDP Chart

Portugal GDP Q3 2014

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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